50/50

We are only 60 days away from the next Presidential Election and polls indicate it’s essentially a tossup, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump both within the margin of error. CNN’s Chief Election Prognosticator John King recently showed an electoral map with a surprising prediction – a 269-269 electoral tie, with neither candidate getting 270. #Wow

Although a 50/50 tie is rare, I started looking into what kind of things could break the tie and tip the election into one camp or another.

There is a lot of focus on the seven “swing states” a.k.a. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The campaigns are visiting and spending a lot of money in these states, hoping to win their combined 93 electoral votes.

I love looking at market research, consumer behavior, and demographics, and then dissecting the numbers. I like looking at data and then seeing trends and how I might leverage them for clients. 

And before I give you my analysis (and predictions) for the “swing states” on Tuesday, November 5th, I’ll let you know. 1) I’m not a political analyst and 2) I’m not being paid by either party.

Both campaigns have focused much attention on younger Gen Z voters. However, I believe the election will be decided (closely) by voters aged 50+. Although ⅔ of Gen Z tends to lean toward Democratic candidates, Gen X and Baby Boomers are eight times more likely to vote, and the polls indicate they lean Republican.

After looking at aggregate polling data among likely voters and statewide demographics, and then factoring in median age in the various states, I predict that Harris will win 33 electoral votes in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Trump will win 60 in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin. We only have to wait two months to see if I’m right. And of course, I’ll get plenty of ribbing if I’m wrong.

What’s your prediction for the upcoming election? Who will win and why? Always love hearing your thoughts. Email me here.