The Business of Predicting the Future

I do not envy people who make a living predicting the future. Economists, political scientists, financial analysts, meteorologists, or any kind of “ist” whose job is telling us what tomorrow will be like, has a tough and thankless job. They’re all employed because humans don’t like surprises and we have an innate desire to know what’s next. Despite their education, years of experience, and analytical predisposition, folks who predict things for a living never get it right 100% of the time. Let’s face it, they’re happy if they’re better than 50/50. Someone who gets 75% of their predictions right will probably end up in the Hall of Fame.

Most economists predicted a recession in 2023. It (technically) didn’t happen. Political pundits get things wrong all of the time. Half of stock market gurus are right or wrong on any given trading day. Even an excellent local TV news weather watcher can get it wrong once in a while, especially in Richmond. 

Predicting the future is a tricky business. Yet, somehow I can’t help myself. Every year, I try to predict the future for myself, my clients, and my businesses. Luckily for me, I have a pretty good track record, unless you count …. the “big thing.” 

At the end of 2019, I made my yearly predictions for 2020. Some came true, but most did not. For example, I predicted a robust 3.5% economic growth rate for the US, but the “big thing,” aka Covid, happened and the economy actually shrank 3.5%. In 2021, I predicted Covid-19 was over. I was wrong again. Soon, it will be 2024 and we’re still dealing with “the big thing.” How is this possible?

So with all of the excuses out of the way, here are ten bold predictions for 2024. (Be sure to bookmark this blog post and re-check me in October 2025.

• The economy will slow to less than 1% GDP next year.
• There will be a recession and it ends in Q2 (We will find out – when numbers are adjusted – the recession started in Q2 of 2023.
• The DJIA will be down 1% or more in 2024.
• Virginia will turn from purple to red in the next election cycle in November, with Republicans controlling both House of Delegates and Virginia Senate.
• However, Virginia turns purple again in 2024 with Sen. Kaine winning his election, but the state votes Republican in the Presidential election for the first time since 2004.
• Richmond will have a drier and warmer 23-24 winter than average.
• Richmond will have more than 50 inches of rain in 2024, 5 more inches than the historical average, because of a wetter Spring, Summer, and Fall.
• Residential Real Estate prices in Richmond, Virginia will drop by 5% or more in 2024.
• Commercial Real Estate values in Richmond will buck a 5-year downward trend, and rise more than 3% in 2024.
• The FED funds rate will drop to 3.25% by the end of 2024.

This, of course, is offered with the caveat we have no “big thing” hit us in 2024. So do you agree or disagree? I always love hearing your thoughts (and predictions), so email me here.